European debt problems difficult to reproduce beautiful copper
12/5/2011 6:09:20 PM Hit:6
Copper fell from a high level since September and has been continued with wide oscillation pattern, although short-term trend point of view than the rubber and other species strong, but as a whole is below the long-term upward trend line and previous level of support, long copper pattern has been reversed. We believe that copper is present in two-phase upward adjustment after the break, the time will depend on the macro-adjustment changes depending on the surface, but troubled by the debt crisis in Europe, mid-term bearish pattern will be difficult to change.
U.S. dollar will continue upward trend
Troubled debt crisis for the European market to ease the tension a little short. Western countries have frequently shot in a series of intervention measures, the European countries is the gradual elimination of differences. The nature of the debt crisis has been non-debt size, but national optical fiber Cable solvency problems. The data show that the manufacturing sector in Europe has been exhausted, national service, wholesale, retail and other pillar industries are being seriously challenged, the possibility of a recession in the euro area are increasing. Instead, the U.S. economy to accelerate forward, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped, consumer confidence index bottoming out, the manufacturing sector is also better than the Asian and European countries, the dollar rose to lay a solid foundation.
Speculation demand from China lost its effect
In the arbitrage window is open, the October China's refined copper imports continue to increase and reached a high point during the year, imports of unwrought copper and copper volume increased slightly, although the data chain increased in the year, but the year the data is no longer beautiful. Currently the world's major economies face the risk of economic slowdown or even recession, overall economic background has been quietly changing. Although the country has begun to reduce quasi-gold deposit, but the tone does not mean that monetary policy shift, China needs the support of the effect of copper has been cut.
Downstream of the actual decline in demand
As the refined copper imports continue to increase, in October China's refined copper apparent consumption continue to rise slightly, but the lower apparent consumption and the real needs of the opposite. China's economic growth will slow in the pattern, the overall demand for copper fell to a high probability event. Published data from October, the domestic refined copper production and copper production both fell, near the end, failed to start up library demand, traders wait and see mood strong, weak overall performance of copper downstream demand.while in October wire and cable industry operating rate from 90% to 80.7%. The data show that the second half of 2011, domestic copper demand has actually declined.
Position to maintain downturn trend
CFTC released the latest positions show the total positions continued to fall, the fund net long remained clearance status. Position structure, long and short positions last week, uncharacteristically sharp business decline, suggesting that long-term copper market outlook, investors cautious. We CFTC fund accounting and business trends to see the net positions, the Fund has continued and commercial net convergence divergence than the law, the current structure of the graph shows the price of copper will last a long time oscillating trend
